Betting
On the Emmy Awards
Here's Doc's Sports look at the 58th Annual
Primetime Emmy Awards. The ceremony airs this Sunday at 8 p.m. EST
on NBC. The Emmy Award winners are selected by the Academy of
Television Arts and Sciences.
(Odds posted at Pinnacle Sportsbook)
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Carell ("The Office"): -176
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk"): +501
Kevin James ("King of Hearts"): +1640
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm"): +531
Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men"): +1640
Shalhoub is the defending champ, but no one has
repeated in this category since Michael J. Fox did so from "Family
Ties" in the late 80s. Wow. How old am I? Larry David may finally
break through, but I doubt it because he is arguably not even the
funniest character on his own show. Sheen is out. Something about
murdering hookers, beating and threatening your amazingly smokin'
wife, and week-long coke binges tend to turn voters off. Well,
most voters.
I have to go with the chalk here. Carrell has
had a phenomenal run over the past 18 months, parlaying his fame
from "The Daily Show" to success on both "The Office" and several
outstanding roles on the Big Screen. I think his selection here is
the culmination of a year's worth of laughs.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Stockard Channing ("Out of Practice"): +525
Lisa Kudrow ("Comeback"): +389
Julia Louise Dreyfus ("New Adventures of Old Christine"): +479
Debra Messing ("Will & Grace"): +723
Jane Kaczmarek ("Malcolm in the Middle"): +138
Kaczmarek is the favorite, but I like the value
on both Kudrow and Messing. Since "Will & Grace" is over, she may
get a sympathy nod for her years of exceptional work. She did win
the award in 2002-03 as well. As for Kudrow, I saw some early odds
that had her listed at -200, so to see such a swing I have to
wonder if there is something fishy going on. According to those
early odds, Kaczmarek was posted at the second-highest odds.
Again, that's a curious disparity. If this were sports betting,
that would be a clear indication that Kaczmarek is a lock. But
this isn't sports betting, so I don't know what it means. I just
know the value play is Kudrow.
Best Comedy Series
"The Office": -115
"Arrested Development": +295
"Curb Your Enthusiasm": +924
"Scrubs": +849
"Two and a Half Men": +1605
Watch for the upset by "Arrested Development".
The show was finally given its death blow by television
executives, so this could be a way for the Academy to give one
final "screw you" to the suits. I'll be surprised if "The Office"
wins, even if it is the favorite. It's openly accepted that it's a
weaker, watered-down version of the British original so the
Academy would be making an international statement if they gave
the show the nod. Plus, though it is popular I just don't know if
it has the depth of past winners. Watch for "Curb". These are
great odds for a show that, as fresh and witty as it has been, has
never won the award. It would also be retribution by the Academy
for picking "Frasier" over "Seinfeld" for all those years.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"): -200
Kiefer Sutherland ("24"): +454
Peter Krause ("Six Feet Under"): +1538
Chris Meloni ("Law & Order SVU"): +910
Martin Sheen ("West Wing"): +1417
The following statements on this category were
written by myself and posted on our site last September (Google
it):
"However, how about a write-in vote for Denis
Leary and his gripping portrayal of firefighter Tommy Gavin in
"Rescue Me"? I don't pimp too many shows (It's on Fx on Tuesday at
10 p.m.), but "Rescue Me" is one of the best on TV. It features
strong emotion, compelling storylines, surreal encounters, and
some of the best writing you'll find. In fact, I can't think of
too many shows in the last four or five years that capture the
tone, topics and subtleties of male conversations like this one.
Maybe next year."
I think you know who I'm betting on.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Geena Davis ("Commander in Chief"): +314
Frances Conroy ("Six Feet Under"): +294
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"): +287
Allison Janney ("West Wing"): +471
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order SVU"): +698
Like the Comedy category, this one is a toss-up.
I like Sedgwick in this spot. Though she does look like a fish,
she carries an otherwise clumsy show. Hargitay is getting
tremendous odds here as well. My wife is a huge SVU fan and
Hargitay had an outstanding year on the show. She would be an
astute play at fabulous odds. Last year Patricia Arquette took the
hardware despite having the third-best odds, so an upset isn't
beyond the realm. Davis is a dark horse. That was a daring show
and, according to the ratings and critical reviews, a success. She
is graceful and is the type of actress the Academy wants to
recognize.Check Doc's Sports site for daily sports betting
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